Germany, excluding AfD from government proves Vance right

The results of the German elections are a further blow to the already badly damaged credibility of the political class that has alternately governed the most populous, richest and most influential country in continental Europe for many decades.

In fact, the current consultations have once again produced a paradoxical and almost surreal stalemate to which politics on the old continent has unfortunately become accustomed: the electorate gives an unequivocal and clear answer, but the current political system will not take it into account, circumventing and producing results that are even in total contradiction to it.

In Germany, since the right-wing sovereignist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) appeared on the political scene, the political system has literally gone mad because the other forces have implemented a rigid conventio ad excludendum against it, centred on its gross demonisation as an anti-democratic, subversive, even neo-Nazi party. An exclusion similar to that which the mainstream, centre-right and left forces have unleashed against other parties of the new European right, such as Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, the Fratelli d'Italia and the Lega, Diritto e Giustizia in Poland, Orban's Fidesz in Hungary, Vox in Spain and so on.

If in Italy, as in the Netherlands, Poland and Hungary, despite attempts to marginalise them, populist/sovereigntist forces have managed to take over the government by winning elections and/or forming coalitions with other parties. But in other countries they have not achieved the level of consensus that would make this possible, and things have been different in the two countries that have long constituted the 'axis' of EU governance - Germany and France. The other parties, even if they are extremely different and opposed to each other, have devised the most acrobatic means and formed the most unlikely alliances in order to prevent the supposedly 'extreme' right from coming to power, even explicitly claiming the need to create a real 'cordon sanitaire' or 'wall' against the supposed 'new barbarians'.

This is what French President Emmanuel Macron did last year, calling for early elections after Marine Le Pen's success in the European elections, and then forming a coalition with all the left-wing parties in the second round of voting in each constituency in order to deprive the National Rally of its majority, even if this meant that he would be faced with a conundrum of almost impossible government majorities and therefore very fragile executives and the ever-looming spectre of new elections. Thus, in Germany, the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, announced during the campaign that he would not seek an alliance with the AfD after the vote, despite the polls predicting a big victory for Alice Weidel's party (in the photo, LaPresse).

A practice that, unsurprisingly, has also been applied by the mainstream political families at the level of the Union, with the continued exclusion of the winning right-wing sovereignist parties from the majority for the Commission after the European elections (except for the agreement with Meloni) and the reaffirmation of Ursula von der Leyen's presidency, almost as if nothing had happened.

The result of the German elections, which largely confirmed the predictions, really does present a political situation like a tragic comedy. In a normal country, on a normal continent, there would be no doubt about who won and in which direction the voters were heading: Germany has clearly moved to the right. The sum of the votes of the CDU/CSU (28.5%) and the AfD (20.8%) is 49.3%, the greatest increase in support is precisely that of the sovereign right of Ms Weidel (+10.42, doubled, against 4.38 of the Christian Democrats), and the sum of the seats won by the two parties would easily reach a majority in the Bundestag (208 + 152, 360 out of 630).

The Social Democrats are the big losers, losing 9.29% and dropping to 16.41%; the Greens fall by more than 3 points to 11.61%, the Liberals even remain below the electoral threshold and are out of the Bundestag. The only other force to gain seats is the radical left Linke. And if we look at which parties won the majority in each constituency, the effect is even clearer and more impressive. The territory of the Federal Republic, apart from a few sporadic 'spots' of left-wing parties, is practically divided in two according to the old division between the two Germanies: The CDU/CSU wins everywhere in the west, the AfD everywhere in the east.

Nevertheless, Merz confirms the convention ad excludendum towards Weidel and is preparing to try to form a "grand coalition" with the Social Democratic losers, which would have an extremely precarious majority (328 seats, just 13 over 50%). Once again, the demands of a right-wing sovereignist party are being ignored and rejected, showing contempt for the section of society that entrusted it with this task.

The AfD, as can be seen from the above distribution of votes, mainly expresses the demands and concerns of the most economically disadvantaged areas of the country. And like many other parties in its political family, it doesn't put forward subversive or extremist proposals, but on the contrary, proposals typical of a right-wing, pro-market, 'law and order' political force. It is calling for a change of course from the social disaster created by European governments in recent decades: the ideological and ruinous green energy plans that have literally destroyed industry and sown unemployment; the unregulated opening up to mass immigration that has spread crime and terrorism while driving down wages; and the one-sided coverage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that has further crippled energy supplies and the economy.
The denial of the legitimacy of its arguments and the stubborn refusal to consider its proposals for a centre-right government programme have no rational justification other than the entrenchment of a German and continental political class that is still convinced that it can govern with a dirigiste and paternalist logic, with no opposing voices, as if the governed were a docile instrument and as if the world around them, with the real questions it poses, did not exist.

This entrenched attitude, despite the indignant reactions from this political class, confirms precisely the accusations made by US Vice President J.D. Vance in his speech in Munich. What is happening in Germany today is further proof that the old continent is experiencing a chronic - and acute - regression of the principles of freedom and democracy, and is largely dominated by elites who openly advocate censorship of their citizens' ideas, are unconcerned with their real problems and ignore the opinions they express through their votes.